After sliding back in June, existing-home sales picked up in July. The latest update, released August 21, shows a modest rebound. Sales rose 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million are now 0.8% higher than a year ago. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart puts things in the most accurate perspective for the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that slightly better affordability and stronger wage growth are giving sales a lift, with buyers also benefiting from more choices in the market. He added that many areas are seeing near-flat price growth, with some regions experiencing outright price declines. Even so, homeowners remain in a strong position, with a cumulative 49% increase in typical home values since mid-2019. Distressed sales remain at historic lows, and inventory has climbed to its highest level since May 2020, offering buyers their best negotiating position in years. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, July 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 500k +8.7% $509,300 +0.8% Midwest 940k -1.1% $333,800 +3.9% South 1.805m +2.2% $367,400 -0.6% West 720k +1.4% $620,700 -1.4%

Mortgage application activity eased last week, but not in a statistically significant way.  One might be inclined to note a very slight uptick in mortgage rates, but it's just as fair to say that rates held steady near longer-term lows.  The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 1.4% decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 15, 2025. “Mortgage rates increased slightly last week, with the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.68 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. VA applications fell 16%, while FHA refinance applications increased as FHA rates remained comparatively competitive. The Refinance Index decreased 3% week-over-week but remains about 23% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index was essentially flat (+0.1% seasonally adjusted) and is running about 23% ahead of last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications slipped to 46.1%. ARM share decreased to 8.6%. FHA share rose to 19.1%, while VA share declined to 13.4%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.68% (from 6.67%) | Points: 0.60 (down from 0.64) 15yr Fixed: 5.96% (from 5.93%) | Points: 0.70 (up from 0.63) Jumbo 30yr: 6.64% (from 6.70%) | Points: 0.60 (up from 0.56) FHA: 6.39% (from 6.40%) | Points: 0.66 (down from 0.77) 5/1 ARM: 6.01% (from 5.80%) | Points: 0.63 (down from 0.67)

Builder sentiment remains deeply subdued, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo’s Housing Market Index (HMI) dipped one point in August to 32—its 16th straight month below the key 50 mark, and matching the lowest level since December 2022. Current sales conditions fell one point to 35 Sales expectations for the next 6 months remained steady at 43 Buyer traffic ticked up two points to 22 High mortgage rates (hovering around 6.58%), elevated new-home prices, and affordability pressures continue to weigh heavily on builder sentiment. In August, 37% of builders reported price cuts averaging 5%, while 66% offered sales incentives—the highest share seen in the post-COVID era. Affordability and demand remain persistent challenges, and despite slight improvements in buyer traffic, the overall outlook remains weak. Builders are leaning more on incentives than confidence to attract buyers. Regionally, confidence was weakest in the West, where affordability pressures are most acute and sentiment fell to its lowest since late 2022. The South also declined but continues to hover near the national average, while the Midwest held steadier and the Northeast was little changed. The divergence highlights that high-cost markets are bearing the brunt of buyer hesitation, while lower-cost regions remain relatively more resilient.

The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a sharp rebound in July, with overall housing starts climbing 5.2% to a 1.428 million annual pace. Multifamily activity led the way, jumping to 470k—its highest level since May 2023—while single-family starts rose 2.8% to 939k. At the same time, permits slipped to 1.354 million, marking the lowest level in five years and underscoring a clear split between current activity and the forward-looking pipeline. The surge in multifamily starts fully reversed June’s decline and drove the bulk of July’s improvement in total starts. Single-family activity also improved modestly but remains well below earlier peaks. Completions were somewhat higher, but the more meaningful takeaway lies in the growing gap between permits and starts. Permits, by contrast, have been much more even-keeled—showing none of the sharp swings seen in housing starts. The steady decline in total permits—now at a five-year low—suggests builders remain cautious despite the recent rebound in activity. Single-family permits edged up 0.5% to 870k, but that gain was not enough to offset weakness in multifamily approvals. While July’s data highlights both the volatility of housing starts and the outsized role of multifamily construction, the deeper story is the widening divergence between starts and permits—pointing to persistent affordability issues, elevated mortgage rates, and lingering builder uncertainty about demand ahead.

Mortgage application activity surged last week as sharply lower mortgage rates boosted refinance demand and gave purchase applications a modest lift. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 10.9% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 8, 2025. “Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since January, leading to a solid rebound in application activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.67%, the third straight weekly drop, and that pulled refinance applications to their highest level since early 2023. Purchase activity also picked up, driven by gains in both conventional and government segments.” The Refinance Index jumped 23% week-over-week and is now roughly 55% higher than the same week a year ago.  The Purchase Index rose 1.4% from the prior week and is running about 18% ahead of last year’s pace. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.67% (from 6.77%) | Points: 0.64 (up from 0.59) 15yr Fixed: 5.93% (from 6.03%) | Points: 0.63 (down from 0.66) Jumbo 30yr: 6.70% (from 6.65%) | Points: 0.56 (down from 0.59) FHA: 6.40% (from 6.47%) | Points: 0.77 (down from 0.81) 5/1 ARM: 5.80% (from 6.06%) | Points: 0.67 (up from 0.49)

Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as falling rates boosted both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey for the week ending August 1, 2025, showed a 3.1% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index from the prior week. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77%, and applications for both purchase and refinance increased.” The Refinance Index rose 5% week-over-week and is 18% higher than the same week in 2024. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2% (unadjusted up 1%) and is also 18% above year-ago levels. The refinance share of total mortgage applications increased to 41.5% from 40.7% the previous week.  It's now at its highest level since April. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share rose to 8.5%. FHA share edged down to 18.5% from 18.8%, while VA share increased to 13.3% from 12.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.77% (from 6.83%) | Points: 0.59 (from 0.60) 15yr Fixed: 6.03% (from 6.12%) | Points: 0.66 (from 0.64) Jumbo 30yr: 6.65% (from 6.74%) | Points: 0.59 (from 0.51) FHA: 6.47% (from 6.56%) | Points: 0.81 (from 0.83) 5/1 ARM: 6.06% (from 6.22%) | Points: 0.49 (from 0.51)

Mortgage application activity fell last week, reversing prior momentum and highlighting continued softness in both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 3.8% decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 25, 2025. “Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since May, with both purchase and refinance activity declining over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30‑year fixed rate was little changed at 6.83%, but high enough to deter refinancing, pushing the refinance index lower for the third straight week. Purchase applications decreased by almost 6 percent, as conventional, FHA, and VA purchase loans declined despite slowing home‑price growth and rising inventory.” The Refinance Index dropped 1% week‑over‑week, though it remains about 30% above last year’s level. The Purchase Index posted a 6% weekly decrease, but still sits roughly 17% higher than the same week in 2024. Purchase applications declined across the board, while refinance activity also softened. The 30‑year fixed rate held steady at 6.83% after a slight drop from the week prior. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.83% (from 6.84%) | Points: 0.60 (down from 0.62) 15yr Fixed: 6.12% (down from 6.14%) | Points: 0.64 (down from 0.69) Jumbo 30yr: 6.74% (down from 6.75%) | Points: 0.51 (down from 0.70) FHA: 6.56% (up from 6.52%) | Points: 0.83 (up from 0.79) 5/1 ARM: 6.22% (up from 6.01%) | Points: 0.51 (up from 0.28)

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s release showed a decline after last month’s modest gain, reflecting persistent market softening. Pending home sales fell by 0.8% in June, following May’s 1.8% rise. The index is now 2.8% lower than a year ago , but remains far below pre‑2022 levels. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t topped 80 since the summer of 2022, indicating a sluggish, rate‑constrained housing market. “The data shows a continuation of small declines in contract signings despite inventory in the market increasing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The drop in June extends weakness even as more homes come online. Regional Breakdown (Month‑Over‑Month) Northeast: +2.1% Midwest: −0.8% South: −0.7% West: −3.9% Regional YoY Change Northeast: 0.0% (flat) Midwest: −0.9% South: −2.9% West: −7.3% All regions except the Northeast posted declines month-over-month. Year-over-year, only the Northeast remains unchanged. The West saw the steepest annual drop at −7.3%.

Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller released the latest update on home price appreciation this week. Actually, in the current case, it's more like home price depreciation (at least in month over month terms). This is a bit confusing because average prices were higher versus the previous month, but that is virtually always true at this time of year.  Seasonal adjustments are very useful for data like home prices (which have a reliable cadence that follows the typical homebuying seasons).  It's after adjusting for seasonality that we see emerging signs of weakness.  FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) May: −0.2%; April was revised from −0.4% to −0.3% YoY: +2.8% from May 2024 to May 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: Middle Atlantic showed the steepest fall at −0.8%, while West South Central and New England saw modest gains of +0.3%. All nine census divisions remain positive YoY, ranging from +0.6% to +5.9%. Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +2.3% in May, down from +2.7% in April MoM (raw): +0.4% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.3% This marks the smallest annual national gain since July 2023 and the third consecutive monthly decline in seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally Adjusted Comparison Table: FHFA vs Case‑Shiller (May 2025) Index MoM (SA) YoY FHFA HPI −0.2% +2.8% Case‑Shiller −0.3% +2.3%

The latest New Home Sales report (released today) shows a slight uptick in June after last month’s sharp drop. The seasonally‑adjusted annual sales pace rose to 627,000. This represents a modest +0.6% gain from May’s revised 623,000, but remains ‑6.6% below the June 2024 level of 671,000.  For all practical purposes, the pave of sales has been relentlessly sideways and stable for more than 2 years--even if there's been a bit of volatility at times. Regional Breakdown (Sales, June 2025) South: +5.1% MoM (driving national gain) Midwest: +6.3% MoM Northeast: ‑27.6% MoM West: ‑8.4% MoM Market Inventory & Pricing Homes for sale: 511,000 units (+1.2% from May; +8.5% YoY) Months’ supply: 9.8 months (highest since November 2022) Median sales price: $401,800 (‑4.9% MoM; ‑2.9% YoY) Average sales price: $501,000 (‑2.0% MoM; +1.1% YoY) Big Picture Takeaway New home sales rose modestly in June but remain well below last year’s levels, held back by elevated mortgage rates (~7%) and excess inventory. The housing market shows signs of cooling, with the median price slipping—providing some relief for buyers, though mortgage costs continue to constrain demand.