The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month rate shifts (which could also simply be coincidental). Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month) Northeast: −1.1% Midwest: +8.7% South: +3.1% West: +5.0% Regional YoY Change Northeast: +2.6% Midwest: +6.7% South: +4.2% West: +0.2% Three of the four regions posted solid monthly gains, led by the Midwest and West. On a yearly basis, all four regions were slightly positive, with the Midwest again the strongest performer.

Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. The eternal caveat with home price data is that the "lowest in x years" classification doesn't mean home prices are falling if the percent change is still positive--something that's still easily the case in annual terms.  Another way to visualize this is with the simple price indices themselves (NOT the percent change). Note: the following chart's y axis is normalized such that 100 = 100 for both indices (which simply makes it easier to see correlation). The takeaway from this second chart is quite different. Prices remain near all-time highs and have only ebbed slightly in recent months. None of the moderation in prices over the past few years even belongs in the same conversation as the massive correction seen during the great financial crisis. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) July: −0.2%; June was unrevised at −0.2% YoY: +2.8% from July 2024 to July 2025 All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.6% in the Mountain division to +6.5% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted)

Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more than 3 years. "Mortgage rates increased to their highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger-than-expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications edged lower, with the seasonally adjusted index down 1% and the unadjusted index down 2%, though both measures remain 16% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 55.0% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 8.4%. The FHA share increased to 16.8%, while the VA share declined to 16.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary:

Existing-home sales held roughly steady in August after tepid uptick in July. That NAR reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million , down 0.2% from July but 1.8% higher than a year ago. Sales have now hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years, reflecting the same constrained but stable environment that has defined the market since 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said mortgage rates are beginning to ease and inventory is slowly improving, which should help future sales. He added that record-high housing wealth and a strong stock market may support move-up activity, even as the lower end of the market remains tight. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, August 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 480k -4.0% $534,200 +6.2% Midwest 960k +2.1% $330,500 +4.5% South 1.83m -1.1% $364,100 +0.4% West 730k +1.4% $624,300 +0.6% National Market Stats

New home sales surged in August, breaking a two-year stretch of range-bound activity. The Census Bureau and HUD reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000 , up 20.5% from July’s revised 664,000 and 15.4% above August 2024’s 693,000. This is the strongest monthly gain since the pandemic boom and a clear departure from the prior sideways trend. The only caveat is that this data series is notorious for wide margins of error and revisions. For-sale inventory fell to 490,000 , down 1.4% from July and 4.0% higher than a year ago. At the current sales pace, that represents a 7.4-month supply , a sharp drop from July’s 9.0 months and nearly 10% below August 2024. It is normal for inventory to move lower when sales increase, all else equal. Prices moved higher with the sales surge. The median sales price climbed to $413,500 (+4.7% MoM; +1.9% YoY), while the average price jumped to $534,100 (+11.7% MoM; +12.3% YoY). The share of $1 million-plus homes rose to roughly 7% of total sales, double July’s level, helping lift the average. Regional Sales (MoM): Northeast +72.2%, Midwest +12.7%, South +24.7%, West +5.6% Stage of Construction: Not started 96,000; under construction 290,000; completed 414,000 Median months on market (completed): 2.7 On a qualitative note, the huge move in home sales may raise questions about whether the recent rally in interest rates played a role. While there is broad connection between rates and sales at times, it never has an impact that quickly. After all, this sales data is for the month of August, and rates didn't make their big move until September.

Mortgage application activity technically hit another long-term high last week, but that's only because it was riding the coattails of the previous week's stellar momentum. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 19, total volume rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 0.1% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 1% from the previous week and is running 42% higher than the same week one year ago. The modest improvement was likely driven by the lower rates available early in the survey period. As rates have snapped back to slightly higher levels, it makes good sense to see things level-off. "Interest rates generally have moved up following the FOMC meeting last week but remain in a range that is favorable for many borrowers,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications were similarly steady, with the seasonally adjusted index up 0.3% and the unadjusted index down 1% while remaining 18% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 60.2% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share decreased to 8.9%. The FHA share of total applications fell to 15.7%, while the VA share rose to 17.5%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.34% (from 6.39%) | Points: 0.57 (from 0.54) 15yr Fixed: 5.70% (from 5.63%) | Points: 0.69 (from 0.58) Jumbo 30yr: 6.44% (from 6.48%) | Points: 0.34 (from 0.35) FHA: 6.14% (from 6.14%) | Points: 0.74 (from 0.68) 5/1 ARM: 5.53% (from 5.65%) | Points: 0.49 (from 0.41)

Builder confidence levels continued kicking a sad little can down the same long and lonesome road. The September National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) held flat at 32, extending the streak to 17 consecutive months below the key 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. While the overall index isn't pretty, there was some positive movement in the component index that focuses on sales expectations over the next 6 months, which rose to its highest levels in 6 months. These expectations are responsible for keeping overall confidence from sinking to new long-term lows--largely weighed down by historically low buyer traffic. With affordability being a key concern, the recent drop in mortgage rates could help break that traffic jam, assuming it sticks. The rate outlook got a bit fuzzier in the 2nd half of the week as the average 30yr fixed rate ticked up somewhat sharply from the lowest levels in a year to the highest levels in 2 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Pricing pressure remains widespread. NAHB reported that 36% of builders cut home prices in September, with an average reduction of 5%. Meanwhile, 64% of builders offered sales incentives—still an elevated share by historical standards. Regionally, confidence was weakest in the West, where affordability challenges are most severe. The South tracked near the national average, while the Midwest and Northeast held relatively steadier, reflecting the persistent gap between high-cost and lower-cost housing markets.

The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total housing starts (the groundbreaking phase of construction) fell 2.3% to a 1.398 million annual rate, led by a 3.4% decline in single-family starts to 906k. Multifamily activity eased 1.5% to 464k but continues to trend higher over the past several months, signaling sustained demand for apartments and other multi-unit projects. The standout shift came on the permitting side. Total permits dropped 6.8% to a 1.264 million annual pace—one of the steepest monthly declines in years. Single-family permits slid 5.1% to 827k and multifamily permits fell 9.3% to 437k. Importantly, though, permits had been running well above starts for much of the year. This latest pullback brings the two measures into closer alignment, suggesting a more balanced pipeline. Note the broadly flat pace of housing starts.  This suggests a fairly steady pace of construction for now.

What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured in the weekly survey numbers from MBA and Freddie Mac.  The expectation was that refinance activity would be surging in this week's data.  That turns out to have been an understatement. For the first time in several years, we have to take our chart of MBA's refinance applications all the way back to 2022 in order to provide context for the levels achieved this week.  Until now, September 2024 set the high water mark. That's a whopping 58% increase in refi demand versus last week, and it's 70% higher than the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index rose only 3%, but that leaves it near the best levels since early 2023. Overall applications were up 29.7%, the 2nd biggest jump since the last week of 2022, and in outright terms, application activity rose by the highest amount since July 2021! There are already clouds on the horizon, unfortunately.  On the same day these numbers were released, rates began moving sharply higher in response to this week's Fed announcement (why?). The rate spike continued on Thursday in response to economic data.  All told, rates are easily back up to the highest levels since before the September 5th jobs report.  Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist noted "homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey."

Mortgage applications jumped 9.2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. The results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. “Mortgage rates declined for the second consecutive week as Treasury yields moved lower on data indicating that the labor market is weakening. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.49 percent, down 20 basis points over the past two weeks to the lowest since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022, with both purchase and refinance applications moving higher. Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace. There was also a pickup in ARM applications, both in terms of level and share, as ARM rates were considerably lower than fixed rate loans, which typically benefits homebuyers.” The Refinance Index rose 12% from the previous week and is 34% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index increased 7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and is now 23% higher than last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications increased to 48.8%. ARM share rose to 9.2%. FHA share decreased to 18.5%, while VA share climbed to 15.3%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.49% (from 6.64%) | Points: 0.56 (from 0.59) 15yr Fixed: 5.70% (from 5.84%) | Points: 0.55 (from 0.84) Jumbo 30yr: 6.44% (from 6.58%) | Points: 0.48 (from 0.39) FHA: 6.27% (from 6.31%) | Points: 0.68 (from 0.74) 5/1 ARM: 5.77% (from 5.90%) | Points: 0.63 (from 0.34)